Written by College Football Expert ATS Analyst Al Presto.
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The (6-3) SU/ATS Mississippi State Bulldogs beat Louisiana Tech last week 45-3 SU as twenty-three point home FAVORITES AGAINST THE POINT SPREAD in a tune-up for this week’s huge obstacle.
Mississippi State hasn’t played very well on the road this season in conference play beginning with a 28-7 loss to Kentucky as nine and a half point road FAVORITES ATS. They were expected to lose in Death Valley against LSU which happened 16-3 in a span which they dropped three of four ATS. The Bulldogs know what’s in store Saturday, they’ll be fired up and can only hope Alabama has a lingering effect from last week rivalry game in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
- The UNDER is 6-0 Mississippi State last six games vs. Teams with a winning SU record.
- Mississippi State is 1-4 ATS the last five times the teams have played in Tuscaloosa.
- UNDER bettors have cashed in the Bulldogs last four on the road against a team with a winning home record.
- The Bulldogs have stayed UNDER the total their last five games.
The (9-3) SU, 6-3 ATS Alabama Crimson Tide took another step in their quest to the BCS Playoffs last week with a 29-0 win over LSU as 14-point road FAVORITES ATS. Last Saturday’s highly anticipated contest was supposed to expose a weakness in the Crimson Tide, but as usual, they proved to be too much for the opponent.
2018 heisman trophy front-runner Tua Tagovailoa threw his first interception of the season in the shutout only to prove insignificant as he went 25 of 42 for 295 yards through the air with two touchdowns.
- Alabama is 4-1 ATS their last five against teams with a winning SU record.
- The home team is 6-2 ATS the last eight meetings between the teams.
- UNDER bettors have cashed in 8 of the last eleven times, the two teams have played.
- The OVER is 3-1 Alabama last four at home.
Saturday’s game is at 3:30 PM EST at noisy Bryant-Denny Stadium on campus in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. The CBS Television Network will be broadcasting.
The Opening Betting Line has Mississippi State as twenty-three point road UNDERDOGS ATS. The TOTAL is 53 points for Saturday’s contest.
Since taking over for current Florida Gator head coach Dan Mullen, Joe Moorhead is doing an admirable job his first year on the sideline in Starkville, Mississippi. However, Mullen brought his Florida team into Davis Wade Stadium on September 29th for a 13-6 win over the Bulldogs.
The Mississippi State offense is led by dual-threat quarterback Nick Fitzgerald who can do a better job trying to beat Alabama with his legs than arm. Mississippi State has rushed for (2,077) total yards on the ground which ranks 19th in the FBS. The average (6.5) yards per play which is 20th in the nation. Running Backs Aeris Williams and Kylin hill must take some of the pressure off of Fitzgerald by catching passes out of the backfield.
The Bulldogs defense hasn’t faced an offense like they’ll see Saturday and it’s the job of coordinator Bob Shoop to have them in position to make plays. Mississippi State gives up an average of (14.6) ppg, and the (288.0) total yards per contest allowed ranks fifth in the FBS.
A key to a Bulldog upset Saturday is to somehow create a few big plays on offense, they must also sustain drives to preserve their defense.
Mississippi State has been eliminated for Conference title contention.
What else can be said about Nick Saban and his Alabama Crimson Tide football team? In twelve season’s on the sidelines he’s become a legend, and in the 2018 BCS title game showed why. With his looking for a spark he came out of the locker room with an unknown quarterback by the name of Tua Tagovailoa who led the Crimson Tide to the win. The move is trying to be replicated by Clemson, Notre Dame along with many other power five football institutes.
Although everything is in place for an Alabama vs. Georgia matchup for the 2018 title game, Saban wants to go undefeated. Alabama has scored 462 total points this season which is the best in College Football. Running Backs Najee Harris (572) yards on the ground along with Damien Harris lead the 26th ranked rushing attack in the nation. South Florida native Jerry Jeudy has (880) receiving yards which are third in the SEC.
The Crimson Tide defense accepted the challenge of LSU last week by pitching their first shutout of the season, and they sacked the Tigers quarterback five times. They’re allowing (15.9) ppg while giving up (309.2) total yards per contest. Alabama gives up (4.6) yards per play which is 10th in the FBS.
Alabama has to come out and play their style of football to remain unbeaten; with the annual Iron Bowl showdown with Auburn along with a title game vs. Georgia is looming they can’t afford to become complacent.
Bovada.Lv, list the Alabama Crimson Tide at -225 to win the 2018 SEC Championship.
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