2018 ALDS (Game 3) Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees MLB Betting Preview for Monday, October 8, 2018.

Authored by Winning Major League Baseball Playoff Betting Analyst Bobby Wallace.

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The (109-55) Boston Red Sox finished with the best record in baseball but knew they were going to be in a dogfight if they faced their storied rivals of the AL East. After taking the first game of the best of five 5-4 as -165 HOME FAVORITES the series shifts to the Big Apple. The Red Sox/Yankees rivalry dates back to 1903 but has met only three times in the postseason, 1999, 2003, and 2004. Boston won the last which also resulted in a 2014 World Series title that ended the Curse of the Bambino.

The OVER is 3-0-1 in Boston last four games following a loss.
The UNDER is 5-2-1 the Red Sox last eight on Monday’s.
Boston is 2-7 in their last nine playoff games (ALDS/ALCS).
The Red Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 ALDS playoff road games.

The (102-63) winner of the 2018 American League wildcard game New York Yankees came back to even the series with a 6-2 road win in game two. Aaron Judge along with Gary Sanchez hit home runs while starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka did a masterful job on the mound. Manager Aaron Boone will hand the ball to Luis Severino (19-8) with a 3.39 era. The right-hander lasted four innings allowing two hit his last performance resulting in a 7-2 wildcard win over Oakland.

The Yankees are 23-4 in Severino’s last 27 starts in the Bronx.
The UNDER is 6-1 the Yankees last 7 ALDS home games.
The OVER is 4-1 the New York Yankees last five postseason home games.
The UNDER is 7-3-1 the Yankees last 11 ALDS games.

Monday’s Game time is 7:35 PM EST at the new Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York, New York. The TBS Network will be broadcasting.

The Opening Betting Line has New York as a -180 home favorite. The total is eight runs for Monday’s contest.

The Boston Red Sox not only lost game two but the all-important home-field advantage. Manager Alex Cora will send right-hander Nathan Eovaldi who’s last road appearance against the Yankees resulted in a 3-2 road loss for Boston. Eovaldi also lost at home vs. The Yankees on September 29th giving up one hit and a run in two innings of work. Boston doesn’t have the best bullpen in baseball, but they rank sixth in strikeouts; however, they allow too many bases on balls which could force Cora to turn to a starter for relief duty.

The Red Sox have a potent offense which led Major League Baseball scoring 5.38 runs per game in the regular season; they do play in a hitter-friendly park when they’re at home. The 9.72 hits per game also were also the best in baseball from April to September.

The OVER is 3-1-1 Boston last five during game 3 of a series.
The OVER Over is also 3-1-1 in Eovaldi’s last 5 starts vs. American League East opponents.

October is a different animal and if the Red Sox want to advance they better start swinging the bat better. J.D. Martinez has three RBI’s with a homerun, but Mookie Betts and the rest of the Red Sox better get it going. Bovada.Lv, list the Boston Red Sox at +250 to win the 2018 MLB ALCS.

The Yankees are right where they want to be and with Aaron Judge swinging the bat with authority fans are starting to believe they’re on their way to the 2018 ALCS. As well as everything is going Boone is still concerned about the defense. Which makes to many errors and it could come back to haunt them against a hard-hitting Red Sox offense. However, New York has a bullpen that can flat out pitch led by David Robertson and the hard-throwing Aroldis Chapman who combined has allowed a hit with six strikeouts in six innings of work in games one and two.

The OVER is 7-1 in New York last eight vs. AL East opponents.
The OVER is 13-3 the Yankees last 16 games after a win.

New Yorkers can’t wait for game 3, there’s a buzz in Gotham, and a lot has to do with the way Judge is hitting the baseball. 2018 Free Agent acquisition Giancarlo Stanton is due for a breakout game, and the Red Sox know if they lost game-3 they’d be in trouble. The Bronx Bombers are healthy right now, but you never know in the rivalry; it’s made for television. Bovada.Lv, list the New York Yankees at +500 to win the 2018 MLB World Series Title.

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Yankees showing they have pitching depth to go with the sluggers

Yankees showing they have pitching depth to go with the sluggers

If you’re going to cherry-pick one statistic to rate a team in any sport, it should be goal/run/point difference. Some teams can score like nobody’s business but can’t defend to save their lives. Others are just the opposite. They can’t do anything with the ball but won’t let you have any fun, either. When the margin between for and against is wide, though, you know you have a team that can do it all.

The World Series champion Houston Astros have the league’s fourth-best record at 24-15 but are lapping the field in run difference. They have scored 86 more runs than their pitchers have allowed. That would suggest they run hot and cold, which is why you must be careful when picking cherries.

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On the other hand, the league’s two best teams are running neck-and-neck in run difference. They’ve also been playing a three-game series at Yankee Stadium that wraps up tonight. The Bronx Bombers [26-10] have taken the first two to wrest the American League East lead from the Boston Red Sox [25-11]. Aaron Boone’s squad is on an 8-game winning streak in which their hitting has largely covered for a slumping pitching staff.

The first two games were 4-0 shutouts over the typically potent Astros. In the first, 25-year-old lefty Jim Montgomery only lasted an inning. ‘Gumby’s’ injury was later diagnosed as a flexor strain in his elbow that will cost him 6-8 weeks. The bullpen covered for him with eight scoreless innings. In the second game, Luis Severino pitched a much-appreciated complete game shutout. He surrendered only five hits while striking out ten. From there, the bats took over.

Masahiro Tanaka couldn’t get out of the seventh, giving up three runs after pitching six scoreless innings in the series finale. The bullpen surrendered two more, but Yankee bats came alive in the ninth, ringing up three runs to come home to New York with three of the four games and an unbeaten start to May.

Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez can now rub elbows with Giancarlo Stantaon, as well.

Cleveland came to town to open the six-game homestand. The Yankees raked Terry Francona’s staff for 19 runs in the three games and needed most of them. Boone’s pitchers surrendered 12.

Things settled down a bit in the first game against the BoSox. Severino went six-plus, surrendering two runs and the Yankees eked out a 3-2 win. Both teams went to town in the second game but the Bombers prevailed 9-6. They’ll have a chance to extend the winning streak to nine while adding a small cushion to their division lead.

The unbeaten run is something of a surprise. Montgomery’s loss is hardly the Yanks’ only injury concern. First baseman Greg Bird has been nursing a broken spur in his ankle. Outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury’s plantar fasciitis and hip problems will keep him out until June. Pitcher Adam Warren will be out a couple of weeks with a back issue. Relievers Tommy Kahnle and Luis Cessa are also on the 10-day DL.

The Yankees have powered through, however. Opponents thought they’d have to deal with three sluggers coming into the season. Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and new signing Giancarlo Stanton are all on nine home runs through the season’s first six weeks but shortstop Didi Gregorius leads the way with an even ten. The group has combined to position New York as the league’s most prolific hitters. They’ve scored 209 runs already. Boston is second with 200.

More importantly to their postseason hopes — I know, it’s early — is the pitching staff’s contribution. As Aaron Boone has had to reach into the minors to keep arms in the bullpen, Larry Rothchild’s group has remained stingy. They’ve combined with the starters to yield the American League’s third-fewest runs, behind the Astros and Red Sox. The Yankees’ ERA is a respectable 3.46, their WHIP 1.165.

The Yankees rotation is putting together solid numbers despite Sonny Gray and Masahiro Tanaka's struggles.

Rothchild has some work to do with Tanaka and Sonny Gray. The Japanese star has decent numbers. In 46 innings he’s walked only ten. His WHIP is below the team average at 1.101. He is struggling to make the out pitch, however. Gray is a more alarming problem. His control is way off. The former Oakland ace has issued 21 passes in 33 IP and is allowing six runs per nine innings.

On the other hand, Severino is handling duties as an ace with aplomb and CC Sabbathia is rolling through lineups as the fourth man in the rotation. If Kahnle and Cessa return soon, the Yankees have a chance to open up some distance on the Red Sox.

The first step will be completing the series sweep tonight.

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Martin Palazzotto is a freelance writer and author of strange bOUnce, a collection of sport fiction.