Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins. 2018 Week 13 National Football League (AFC East) Betting Preview for Sunday, December 2, 2018.

       

            Written by National Football League Point Spread Analyst Bobby Wallace.

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The (4-7) SU, (5-6) ATS Buffalo Bills look to extend their two-game win streak Sunday in South Florida. Buffalo got revenge from a 2018 wildcard playoff loss to Jacksonville with a 24-21 win over the Jaguars as 3-point home UNDERDOGS ATS last week.

Rookie quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills offense produced 327 total yards with 167 on the ground led by 99 yards rushing by the rookie signal caller. The Buffalo defense forced Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles into throwing two interceptions.

  • Buffalo is 7-3 ATS their last ten vs. Miami.
  • The Bills are 0-6 AGAINST THE POINT SPREAD on the road vs. — teams with a losing record at home.
  • OVER bettors have cashed in 5 of the last six times, the teams have played.
  • The UNDER is 4-0 Buffalo last four on a grass surface.

The (5-6) SU, (6-5) ATS Miami Dolphins have lost four of their last five SU and needed a win to stay in the wildcard race.

Miami lost 27-24 to Indianapolis as 9 point road UNDERDOGS ATS as quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw two touchdown passes in his first game since his October 7th injury at Cincinnati. Miami is second in the AFC-East, a game in front of Buffalo.

  • The UNDER is 8-4 the last twelve times the teams have met in Miami.
  • UNDER bettors have cashed in Miami last four vs. AFC East opponents.
  • The favorite is 10-4 the last fourteen meetings between the teams.
  • OVER bettors have profited 4 of the Dolphins last five at home.

Kickoff will be Sunday, December 2, 2018. Game time is at 1:00 PM EST at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The CBS Television Network will be broadcasting. The Betting Line has Miami at 5 point home FAVORITES AGAINST THE POINT SPREAD. The TOTAL is forty points for Sunday’s contest.

The Buffalo Bills remember the miracles that took place their last visit to South Florida as the entire fate of the franchise turned in a 22-16 season finale win on the 2017-18 regular season. Bills fans in Western New York, as well as those who flocked to Hard Rock stadium, were glued to the Bengals at Ravens game when Andy Dalton threw a last-minute touchdown to Tyler Boyd, propelling Buffalo into the playoffs.

The combination ended a long drought of postseason appearances by a franchise that lost four consecutive Super Bowls in the 1990s.

The Buffalo Bills offense ranks 31st in the NFL averaging (273.9) total yards per game averaging just (14.6) ppg only Arizona is worst in both categories. Running Back LeSean McCoy (426) rushing yards leads the leagues 17th ranked ground game (114.1) ypg. However, the Bills struggle to throw the football, and it shows wideout Zay Jones has a team-best 394 receiving yards.

As bad as they are throwing the football they’re the top pass defense team in the NFL allowing opposing offenses just (194.0) ypg through the air. Buffalo ranks 15th against the run, giving up (111.3) yards per contest on the ground and have forced eight fumbles, only Minnesota has done a better job in that category.

Buffalo knows the Dolphins will be out for revenge and they must keep the Miami offense off the field.

Bovada.Lv, list the Buffalo Bills at six total wins for the win the 2018-19 season.
Fans in South Florida had a bevy of questions for Miami Dolphins head coach Adam Gase about his approach to a questionable fourth down call which on third down and long he called a running play. Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck then led the Colts on a drive for the winning field goal sending the sellout crowd home happy.

The Dolphins offense looks more effective with Ryan Tannehill back under center; they’re 28th ranked total offense averages (313.6) total yards per contest. They rank 29th league-wide passing attack puts up (207.0) ypg through the air, and the number should get better with their starter back at the helm. Future Hall of Famer Frank Gore (595) rushing yards las the leagues 20th ranked running attack which produces (106.5) yards per game on the ground.

The Dolphins defense allows (398.0) total yards per contest which is 29th in the NFL while they give up (25.7) ppg which is tied with Cleveland.

Miami cornerback Xavien Howard intercepted Andrew Luck twice last week, and the former Baylor University standout should get pro bowl consideration. The Dolphins 20th ranked pass defense allows (258.0) yards per contest through the air.

Pass rusher Robert Quinn and Cameron Wake must beware of Allen on bootlegs which he’s capable of doing with perfection.

Bovada.Lv, list the Miami Dolphins at 6′ total wins for the win the 2018-19 season.

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Are the Monsters of the Midway back or can the Fins flip the script again?

Some people call it riding the hot hand. Others say it’s jumping on the bandwagon. Either way, the Miami Dolphins are yesterday’s news while the Chicago Bears trend viral like Captain Trips. The two teams meet Sunday at whatever they’re calling the former Joe Robbie Stadium this week.

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Sixty per cent of the betting public back da Bears following their spectacular 48-10 route of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Soldier Field. Quarterback Mitch Trubisky, whose surname still almost rhymes with ‘who is he?’ threw for 354 yards and six touchdowns while completing 19/26 passes. He also ran for another 53 yards, accounting for 92.5% of Chicago’s offensive output. Head coach and former arena football QB Matt Nagy’s offensive scheme receives the most credit for the Monsters of the Midway’s revival. It seems apropos with Michael Myers return to the screen at month’s end in the Hallowe’en reboot.

Mitch Trubisky and Matt Nagy get their signals straight

Mitch Trubisky and Matt Nagy get their signals straight.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins are experiencing Donald Trump-like support numbers after two consecutive losses. Their uninspiring trip to Foxborough, where the Patriots handed them their helmets, was unsucceeded by a stunning capitulation in Cincinnati despite leading by 14 at the half. Once again, Miami are pretenders in most fans’ eyes.

The experts aren’t so convinced. They’re leaning slightly towards Adam Gase’s squad to win this one at home, where they’re undefeated on the young season, despite the line holding steadily at +3.5 for the past two days. Nor can handicappers make up their minds regarding the total [41.5], which at least tells you they don’t expect Trubisky and his receivers to run riot on the road against the stellar Miami secondary.

That doesn’t mean the Bears won’t be a handful for the Dolphins defence. Nagy’s system is a fluid attack designed to exploit the soft spots in a defence on a play-by-play basis, using pre-snap motion to force opponents into tipping their hand. If a team is loading up against the run, they’ll go wide or over the top. If it’s spread, they’ll exploit the gaps.

Gase isn’t overmatched as a strategist. You don’t jump out to big half-time leads as the Dolphins did against Cincinnati or roar back from behind like they did against the Raiders without decent schemes. The problems are consistent execution and game management. Ryan Tannehill shouldn’t be throwing interceptions with a big lead. He should barely be throwing at all. Pound the ball; eat the clock.

Adam Gase searches for a way to make Ryan Tannehill understand why interceptions are bad

Adam Gase searches for a way to make Ryan Tannehill understand why interceptions are bad.

Historically, the teams tend to trade wins. The Bears last won back-to-back against Miami in 1994 and ’97. The Dolphins haven’t done it since 1979 and ’85, the second game being the one where Dan Marino ended Mike Ditka’s run at a perfect season. The Dolphins came away 27-14 winners in 2014’s last meeting between the pair.

More recently, Miami are 1-4 against the spread versus winning teams while Chicago’s taken the under in their last four after winning by at least two touchdowns. The Dolphins have also gone under in their last four against winning teams. You have to pit those trends against the team’s mood after two embarrassing defeats away from home and their determination to keep their season above water.

 

Free Pick: Miami +3.5
2018-19 Football Betting Predictions
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Martin Palazzotto is a freelance writer and author of strange bOUnce, a collection of sport fiction.

 

Can the Dolphins tip the AFC East balance of power against the Patriots?

In 1978 the NFL increased its regular season schedule from 14 to 16 games per team. In 2002, the league realigned to form four divisions per conference, four teams per division. While 24-years apart, the two events combined to effect a permanent change on the league.

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Divisional rivalries were reduced, exerting lesser influence on the season. Whereas GMs once drafted and coaches schemed to beat their rivals, they now had to take the entire league into account. Other influences contributed, such as increased player movement and domed stadiums in cities with extreme weather, but the net effect was a homogenized league. One team’s success was copied by 31 others. The respectively unique characteristics of the NFC Central and AFC West disappeared.

Jim Kiick, Larry Csonka and Mercury Morris defined the AFC East in the early 70s

Jim Kiick, Larry Csonka and Mercury Morris defined the AFC East in the early 70s.

Happily, memory carries the day. Rivalries survive on an emotional level. It’s why realignment left Dallas in the NFC East with Washington, Philadelphia and New York. This week, however, the renewed AFC East rivalry between the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots has far more meaning than simple bragging rights.

The vaunted Patriots have been to eight Super Bowls and 12 AFC Championships since 2001. Their first Super Bowl appearance, in 1985, came the year after the Dolphins last made an appearance. They won that AFC Championship matchup against Miami. In the interim, the Fins reached a championship game just once more, losing to another AFC rival, Buffalo, in 1992.

Since the Bills ended their futile four-year Super Bowl run, the AFC East belonged to the Patriots. This season, perhaps this weekend, that could end. Tom Brady and the defending AFC champions are 1-2 on the young season. The Dolphins are undefeated. The teams meet in Foxboro in an early Sunday game that could change how we’ve perceived the division for two decades.

With a win, the Dolphins move to 4-0 SU and bury the Patriots in a 1-3 SU hole that makes even a playoff appearance a long shot. Not only would a Miami victory put serious pressure on the Patriots, it’d give Adam Gase’s squad every reason to believe it can contend for a Super Bowl this year. That’s a major power shift.

Can the Dolphins go into Foxboro and come away with the W? New England’s lone win this season came at home. Despite their poor start, the Pats are 6.5 point favourites ATS. So, the experts aren’t backing them.

No one believes the Dolphins can go to New England and force Tom Brady to cough up AFC East supremacy.

No one believes the Dolphins can go to New England and force Tom Brady to cough up AFC East supremacy.

Recent trends suggest the Dolphins will at least put up a fight. They’re on a 5-0 run with the OVER against losing teams and 5-1 ATS in their last six after holding an opponent to less than 90 yards rushing. The Dolphins run defence didn’t look too convincing against the Raiders last week but Jon Gruden’s side focussed too heavily on the passing game, allowing Miami to roar back from a first-half deficit to take control in a 28-20 SU win.

On the other hand, the Pats tend to respond after defeats. They’re on a 4-1 string with the OVER against winning teams. Bill Belichick’s side is also 5-1 ATS in their last six after a loss while the Dolphins are running 0-6 ATS in New England. The home team’s 11-1 ATS in the last twelve meetings between New England and Miami, the favourite 8-3.

Everything points to the Pats pulling their fat from the fire. I hate it when everything or everyone points to a certain outcome. Is Hillary Clinton President? Is a 25-point lead in the Super Bowl insurmountable? Did La La Land win the Oscar? Okay, so the last one’s a little silly. You get the point. I’m backing the Dolphins.

 2018-19 Football Betting Predictions
Free Pick: Miami +6.5
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Martin Palazzotto is a freelance writer and author of strange bOUnce, a collection of sport fiction.

 

NFL Dolphins caught in Trump’s net?

NFL Dolphins caught in Trump’s net?

Immediately following the World Cup Final, Russian President Vladimir Putin left Moscow to meet US President Donald Trump in neighbouring Helsinki. Trump spent his time in Finland before and after the meeting criticizing American allies, casting aspersions on the competence and credibility of US intelligence agencies, and praising Putin. The two leaders met behind closed doors with only translators for company. No advisors. No reporters.

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Concerned Americans questioned Trump’s remarks and wondered why he had not taken a stand against the man American intelligence has confirmed authorized Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.

On Thursday, a document describing the Miami Dolphins proposed disciplinary policy for players who refused to stand for the national anthem before games leaked to the press. The maximum four-game suspension met with objections. The NFL and NFLPA released a joint statement indicating new anthem rules would be suspended for several weeks while the two sides met behind closed doors for confidential discussions [no talking to reporters] to negotiate a more amenable policy.

Donald Trump took to Twitter, asking why the NFL did not “take a stand” against its players.

Critics have laughed at the President’s boasts regarding his fitness. I’m no doctor but it’s obvious there is too much irony in his diet.

Before the document leaked, Dolphins owner Stephen Ross had been publicly supportive of players’ right to protest. Apparently, however, he was unwilling to go as far as NY Jets CEO Christopher Johnson who refused to suspend players and promised to pay any fines levied against them.

Afterwards, Ross released a prepared statement that labeled the proposed punishment as a “placeholder” for an unresolved policy.

Most fans weren’t buying it. The term “backpedaling” started to trend in South Florida, accompanied by the now-traditional threat to boycott the team if players continued to protest. Some boasted they already had, which begged the question of what they were doing on the Dolphins’ official Twitter page? The back and forth was interesting

To be clear, the suspended NFL anthem policy did not compel players to stand for the anthem. It gave them the option to remain in the locker room until after the performance. To clarify further, the 1943 Supreme Court ruling did not force employers to tolerate public protests by employees at the workplace. In a free country, neither should be mandatory.

The NFL and NFLPA are demonstrating remarkable professionalism and respect by agreeing to negotiate a mutually acceptable anthem policy rather than litigate. You would think that the man who wrote The Art of the Deal would appreciate that.

Donald Trump teamed up with Stephen Ross when the New Jersey Generals merged with the Houston Gamblers. The new team never took the field; the USFL folded before its first fall season.

Donald Trump teamed up with Stephen Ross when the New Jersey Generals merged with the Houston Gamblers. The new team never took the field; the USFL folded before its first fall season.

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